Chronicle of a Premonition: The Extreme Wildfires Defining the World’s New Reality

16 January, 2025

The devastating fire in Los Angeles confirms the warnings of a scientific community that has long pointed out that we have turned the planet into a place vulnerable to uncontrollable disasters.

By Jordi Jon

On January 7, Los Angeles woke to an orange sky. This unsettling sight has sadly become familiar to the inhabitants of the 31st state of the United States. But this time, it’s especially severe. The fire is spreading, having already caused 25 deaths and destroyed more than 12,000 structures.

What’s most concerning is the dispersion of its hotspots. The Palisades and Eaton fires, the largest so far, have devoured around 40,000 hectares and forced the evacuation of about 180,000 people. Some 6 million residents are threatened by the flames, fueled by strong winds—up to 160 km/h—that can reduce mansions and family homes to ashes in moments.

In the midst of the crisis, MÓN’s member Daniel —working for Reuters—is on the ground covering the unfolding situation. He reports that local residents, who have seen multiple fire seasons, are nevertheless stunned by the scale and intensity of these latest blazes.

Meteorologists, climate experts, and the broader scientific community warn that these wildfires are premonitions. A recent study published by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace—France’s leading climate research institute—notes that the weather conditions that caused these fires are now 5 degrees Celsius warmer and up to 15% drier than the period between 1950 and 1986, attributing this change to global warming.

“The observed frequency of days with extreme weather conditions conducive to wildfires has more than doubled in California since the 1980s,” the study cites previous research. The data describe a world we have altered: conditions once considered extreme now seem to have become the new normal.

A Catastrophic Impact and Mutually Reinforcing Factors

The response to the disaster has been massive. More than 3,000 firefighters, including teams from Mexico, are battling to contain the blaze. VLAT airplanes and helicopters fly over Hollywood’s skies, carrying out missions between the Pacific Ocean and the fire: rescuing people, dropping tons of water, and releasing the striking pink fire retardant powder. However, the worrisome weather conditions highlighted by the scientific community are complicating efforts to stop the flames from spreading.

The devastation is exposing Los Angeles’s vulnerabilities. Dry land turns every blade of grass into fuel. The hurricane-force Santa Ana winds fan the flames. Embers spread across a territory full of wooden homes. A lack of planning for such vast destruction and difficult mountain access is overwhelming all attempts at control. In areas like Pacific Palisades, journalist Colleen Hagerty reports that fire hydrants ran out of water due to high demand and insufficient pressure in the water system, hampering extinction efforts in the first hours of that Tuesday. A combination of factors has led to one of the worst disasters in the county’s memory.

Losses Beyond the Economic

Estimating the economic losses while the fire still rages is complicated. The meteorological data company AccuWeather predicts losses between 250 and 275 billion dollars. However, financial institutions such as Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs consider this assessment an overestimation, expecting the impact to be around 30 or 40 billion dollars. AccuWeather maintains that it has considered multiple factors, from long-term health impacts to immediate losses in the value of public companies affected by the disaster.

Many Californians remain uncertain about whether insurance companies will be able to fulfill their commitments. The risk that some companies might not have the financial capacity is real. This situation could drive them into bankruptcy, leaving hundreds of homeless families without support.

While Los Angeles battles to extinguish the inferno, residents are left wondering whether these wildfires will become part of the region’s future. Studies and firefighter experiences suggest that the answer is yes.

For Kristin Crowley, Chief of the Los Angeles Fire Department, the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires in the region will change life for Angelenos. In a recent press conference, Crowley stated that the magnitude and speed of these fires are unprecedented, forcing a reevaluation of both response strategies and preparedness.

California: A Territory Much Like Spain

Spain faces a similar climate reality on the other side of the ocean, where forest fires are also increasingly devastating landscapes and the life they support. In the Sierra de la Culebra (2022), where 32,000 hectares were burned and four people died; in the Sierra de la Paramera (2021), which affected 22,000 hectares; or in the Sierra Bermeja (2021), which claimed one life and burned nearly 10,000 hectares. Like California, Spain is grappling with a future shaped by aridity and ever more vulnerable forests. On both sides, recognizing fire as a symptom of a world we have changed demands a fundamental shift.

Javier Madrigal, a senior scientist at the Spanish National Research Council’s (CSIC) Institute of Forest Sciences, spoke with National Geographic about the similarities between the two territories. “The vegetation is very similar. The Californian chaparral resembles our native vegetation, and we share comparable fuel loads, especially in areas like Sierra Morena, Montes de Toledo, or the Levante region.” The likeness ends when it comes to weather conditions, though. “In California, the Santa Ana winds blow directly from the desert, and they are often very strong and sustained over several days,” the expert notes. This difference is key to understanding why California’s wildfires can be so massive and, above all, so difficult to manage.

Madrigal highlights another crucial factor: land use. “California has records of major wildfires dating back to the late 19th century. Even though this event is extraordinary, the fire travels along historical routes. The problem is that now it’s running into cities.”

This reality strongly resonates in Spain, where urban expansion has created new vulnerabilities. “It’s similar to what has happened in Valencia,” Madrigal explains. “If water finds its course and there are homes along the way, sadly, there will be human and material losses.” Urban development in forested areas creates inherent risks that must be faced and managed more effectively.

Madrigal is confident that fuel is the only manageable factor in the so-called “Fire Triangle” (weather, fuel, and topography). “Vegetation will burn eventually, in one way or another. Ideally, it should burn in a way that we can control with our available firefighting resources. This strategic land management is vital in California and Spain,” states the scientist.

He concludes with a reflection on the importance of designing more fire-resilient towns and cultivating biodiverse forests that can regenerate after the flames pass, because—as Madrigal and Crowley both warn—“the fire will always return.”

Aerial view of wildfire-scarred roads and new logging routes in Zamora. Jordi Jon.